Another success

I ended up doing 24 trials for this trade because the first 12 were so poor. The next 12 weren't that much better though. The highest scoring trial was only a 2.5 and it was correct, then there were six 1.5 scored trials, 3 for UP and 3 for DOWN. In the end, including the 1 scores there were 14 trials predicting UP and 10 trials predicting DOWN. With the high scored 2.5 trial pointing in the same direction as the consensus, the prediction was obvious, but because of a lack of other high scoring trials, and only 58% of all the trials pointing to a consensus, I considered this trade a medium confidence, and as a result only traded one contract.

Profit was $950 though, so I am happy. I'm actually happier that I am finally starting to get the statistics back up to where they 'should' be. Since I started doing trades based on ARV, my trades have been about 75% correct. This $100,000 challenge is only at 67% - good, but I am still looking for that 75%.

Here are two of the better trials:

1/11/06 1:19 pm
Score: 2.5

1/12/06 8:15 pm
Score 1.5

The stats so far:

Total profit: $25,290
goal: $100,000
progress: 25%

# trades: 21
# trades correct: 14

% correct predictions: 67%