In the October 1 report (http://www.adventuresofgreg.com/Mystery/10-01.html) I asked the following question to test your intuitive abilities:

"What is the answer to my question?"

The question was: "What color is the paper that this question is written on?"

The answer was: "YELLOW"

Believe it or not, out of the 60 predictions that were emailed to me, 12 of them were "RED", 2 were "GREEN", 1 was "BLUE" and yes, one was "YELLOW". Congratulations to Steve Smith who answered the question correctly and scored 5 bonus shares of the profit pool! Also congratulations to everyone else who submitted a color as the answer.

I tried (briefly) to calculate the odds against chance that someone answered the question correctly by considering a 'rank' for the word "YELLOW". It's the 839th most used word in the English language which means (kind of..) that one out of every 839th random guess would result in the word "Yellow". As a group, you managed to do it in a mere 60 attempts! If 1 out of 839 attempts is chance, then 1 out of 60 attempts would be statistically significant (calculating the exact z score or probability is a bit beyond me at the moment).

However, calculating the statistics on this result using only the popularity of the word "Yellow" would be incorrect - there are some psychology issues involved that need to be considered. For example, if you asked 100 random people to invent a random question, what would the likelihood that the question would have a color as an answer? If people have a 'tendency' to invent random questions to which a color is the answer, then you may have subconsciously considered that likelihood when you were predicting an answer.

My point here is that although one correct answer out of 60 attempts 'seems' to be significant, we can't be certain without a proper, fair and objective statistical analysis. To have absolute faith in this result without the statistical evidence is WRONG. And the ability to ASK and SEEK out HONEST evidence is one of the very most important aspects of doing ARV successfully.

Objectivity is an important part of the ARV prediction process which I'll be describing in more detail a little later on.

Best regards, Greg K