October 17, 2003

Yes, finally after almost 6 months I am happy to report another trade has been completed. Although it was NOT successful, I am somewhat satisfied that I am still making an effort to complete what I started over a year ago. Even though it is not going as planned.

If I eventually reach my $100,000 goal then there shouldn't be any question regarding the validity of the ARV method of APPLYING intuitive functioning - and you will be a witness. If my trading account returns to ZERO, I will doubt the applicability of this approach to making stock market predictions - at least, this approach including the public forum it is conducted in.

So far, the jury is still out. Total profits to date equal $18,815 down from a high of $37,300 in April of this year, so we are still well on the PLUS side of the profit scale. 11 predictions correct out of 17 means that I'm still hovering around a somewhat less than spectacular 65% success rate. My z score calculator tells me 65% of 17 trials equals a z score of .95 which basically means that 65% of 17 predictions is likely to happen by chance, so not much magic happening there. Yet.

To date, as part of the $100,000 challenge project only, I have conducted 1666 trials and 51.5% of those trials have been correct. However, I do not consider the lowest scoring trials, so if I filter out the lowest scoring trials, I get a higher 54% success rate which results in a marginally significant z score of 1.65 - certainly nothing to write home about.

The big question in my mind is - why, after establishing such a high and reliable success rate previously, is my result now departing so severely from the previous base line?

Some possible reasons that come to mind are:

1. I'm losing my ability to do this. That *could* be happening, but I doubt it. There is a well known effect called the 'decline' effect, where a new subjects initial high rate of success with intuitive functioning will eventually decline to a moderate level. That was also true in my case, but my decline to a consistent level happened years ago.

2. When you demonstrate remote viewing in a public forum, it doesn't work. That seems to be a very popular idea these days within the remote viewing community, but that theory offers little explanation for Joe McMoneagle's incredible success recently on Japanese TV finding missing children.

3. A losing streak of this magnitude is statistically likely at some point - and this is the point. If I stick it through, my data will eventually return to it's higher average. Maybe - who knows..

Thoughts?

Ok, Why did this trade take 6 months? Well, a few reasons:

1. I wanted to restrict my remote viewing to 13:00 Local Sidereal Time and only during low solar wind conditions. Unfortunately over the last half year, they seldomly coincided - the sun's been pretty active.

In some research based on thousands of remote viewing trials conducted over the last decade, it was found that a significantly high number of trials were successful if conducted between the hours of 12:30 and 13:30 Local Sidereal Time (space time. Kind of. Do a google search if you want more info on LST). Also, it was found that trials that were conducted during those hours AND during relatively quiet solar conditions were even more successful.

2. The other reasons this trade took six months was simply that I was busy doing other things - like Ironman, and a million other things you probably wouldn't be interested in hearing about.

I set up this trade such that I could continue to add trials as solar and LST conditions permitted until I had reached significance (a statistically significant # of trials confirming one prediction over the alternate prediction), and then enter a trade based on that prediction the next day. About a week ago, I became a bit impatient with the slow progress, and decided to skip the solar condition filter, and just do a bunch of trials everyday at 13:00 LST until I reached my confidence level. That confidence level happened finally yesterday with 63% of a higher scoring subset of the trials reaching a z score confidence level of 1.9 (High confidence). So - I entered a LONG trade this morning and exited as planned this afternoon resulting in a LOSS of $2450.

Oh well..

Have a great weekend!

Regards,

Greg K