well - today's loss was especially discouraging because I had such a very strong consensus with the ARV trials!
Never over the last 4 years have I had such a strong group of trials that all pointed to the same outcome and then result in a wrong prediction.
To date, I have made 61 project predictions that resulted in 47 successes (that's 77% correct). Each project prediction is comprised of an average of around 30 trials. The resulting prediction comes from the consensus of the 30 trials.
In order for 47 correct out of 61 guesses to be a chance occurrence, I would have to repeat all 4 years worth of 61 guesses 83,701 times! What I'm getting at here, is this IS about science, not about what we 'like' to believe, or 'think' is the case. Knowing the odds against chance of 1 in 83,701, one cannot explain the highly statistically significant result as a chance occurrence. You HAVE to admit that something else is involved here - most probably some form of information transfer from the future to the past or visa versa.
Anyhow - If I filter out the low scoring trials in each project, the % correct rises dramatically - to as high as 85% correct! This is why I had such high confidence in this weeks prediction. There were a total of 6 trials that scored the highest rating of 3 each (the most of any trade so far), AND, they ALL happened to point to the SAME outcome. Which, unfortunately in this case was UP and the market had other plans resulting in a loss of about $6600.
Oh well - I suppose the big difference between me and most others is this is where a sane person would say "I quit". I'm not calling it quits until I find out why stuff like this happens. There has to be a reason....
Below are some stats I pulled from my database on projects and trials. I seek refuge in my data in bewildering times like this.
Regards and have a great weekend.
Greg K
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Detailed Summary Date: Monday, November 4, 2002 Project Data Score Filter: 0 # projects incl nil: 72 # projects: 61 # projects successful: 47 % projects successful: 77.04918% project Z score: 4.225217
Trial Data Score Filter: 0 Total # of trials 2158 Total # of hits 1176 % of trials correct 54.494903% Z score 4.176149 Average Z per trial 0.015018 Net Score 421.5 sum score hits: 1946.4 sum score miss: 1524.9 hit/miss score sum: 56.071213% Average score (abs) 1.586578 Average hit score (abs) 1.579724 Average miss score (abs) 1.530626